Accra, April 9, – Ghana’s vulnerability to global oil market disruptions is expected to ease significantly following the restart of operations at the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), according to Fitch Solutions.
The international rating agency noted that the development strengthens Ghana’s energy security and reduces its exposure to external supply shocks at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions in global oil markets.
Fitch explained that ongoing volatility in crude prices—driven largely by conflicts in the Middle East and strained relations among major oil-producing nations—continues to pose risks for import-dependent economies.
However, Ghana’s situation has improved after TOR resumed operations in December 2025, ending years of inactivity caused by financial and maintenance challenges.
The report stated that the refinery’s return to full operation has restored domestic refining capacity and shifted Ghana away from its recent position as a net oil importer.
With the refinery running, Ghana is projected to become broadly oil-trade neutral—or even a modest net exporter in 2026—thereby reducing the economy’s exposure to global price spikes.
Fitch further observed that while risks remain, including potential escalation in US–Iran tensions affecting key shipping routes, Ghana is now relatively insulated compared to previous years.
Data from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana indicate that the country’s hydrocarbons trade balance is approaching equilibrium, meaning rising crude prices may not necessarily worsen the current account position.
In fact, under favourable market conditions, higher oil prices could boost Ghana’s export earnings from crude oil.
On this basis, the report projects a current account surplus of about 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2026, a significant improvement compared to the deficit trends recorded between 2010 and 2024.
Such a surplus, Fitch noted, would reinforce macroeconomic stability and help ease pressure on the cedi.
The report also highlighted that strong export performance and prudent external financing have helped build foreign exchange reserves.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, Ghana’s reserves stood at approximately US$14.4 billion, representing about six months of import cover.
According to Fitch, these buffers provide the Bank of Ghana with sufficient capacity to intervene in the foreign exchange market should external shocks emerge from global energy instability.
GHBUSS
9 April 2026
No comments:
Post a Comment