Accra, Dec. 16, – International ratings agency Fitch Solutions has projected a stronger economic performance for Ghana in 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending and a recovery in investment activity.
According to the agency, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to edge up from 5.8 per cent in 2025 to 5.9 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflationary pressures and renewed capital formation.
The projection comes despite recent data from the Ghana Statistical Service, which showed that economic growth slowed to 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 6.5 per cent recorded in the second quarter.
Fitch identified sustained household consumption as the primary driver of growth, noting that this would be reinforced by a marked moderation in inflation.
“Average annual inflation is projected to decline to 9.7 per cent in 2026 from 14.6 per cent in 2025,” the agency said, attributing the disinflation to a lower effective Value Added Tax (VAT) rate, softer global energy prices, and relatively modest depreciation pressures on the Ghanaian cedi.
The report added that although inflation may tick up slightly in the latter half of 2026 due to demand-side pressures, it would remain moderate by recent standards, easing pressure on household budgets.
Fitch further noted that the government’s pledge in the 2026 Budget to increase public-sector wages by 9.0 per cent would enhance purchasing power and support consumer demand.
Private consumption growth is forecast to remain robust at 6.5 per cent in 2026, contributing an estimated 5.3 percentage points to overall GDP growth.
On the investment front, the agency highlighted the Bank of Ghana’s monetary easing cycle, which has resulted in substantial policy rate cuts since mid-2025, as a key factor likely to stimulate private-sector credit.
It also cited the expected implementation of the Public-Private Partnership Act and the Corporate Insolvency and Restructuring Act as measures that would improve the regulatory landscape and strengthen investor confidence.
In addition, Fitch said the recapitalisation of state-owned financial institutions, including the National Investment Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank, would improve access to credit for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, further supporting private investment growth.
Regarding external stability, the agency noted that elevated global gold prices and adequate international reserves would help contain exchange rate pressures, with the cedi projected to depreciate at a pace below its long-term average.
GHBUSS
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