Fitch highlights inflation, gold price volatility and security risks to Ghana’s outlook

Accra, Dec. 16, – Fitch Solutions has cautioned that Ghana’s 2026 economic outlook is exposed to downside risks arising from volatile commodity prices and potential spillover of insecurity from the Sahel region.

In its latest assessment, the ratings agency said although growth prospects remained positive, external shocks posed the most immediate threats to economic stability.

Fitch identified fluctuations in global gold prices as Ghana’s most significant vulnerability. While its Commodities team projected an average gold price of US$3,700 per ounce in 2026, the agency warned that the market remained susceptible to sharp corrections.

The report noted that renewed inflationary pressures in the United States, leading to tighter monetary policy, or an unexpected easing of global geopolitical tensions, could trigger a sudden drop in gold prices.

“Such a development would create immediate pressure on Ghana’s external accounts, depleting international reserves and placing greater strain on the cedi than currently anticipated,” Fitch said.

The agency added that weaker external buffers would likely feed into higher domestic inflation and could force the Bank of Ghana to postpone further interest rate cuts or revert to monetary tightening, dampening economic activity.

Beyond commodity market risks, Fitch also pointed to the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel as a concern with potential fiscal and economic consequences for Ghana.

While its baseline scenario assumes that Ghana will avoid widespread violence, the agency warned of a real risk of cross-border incursions from neighbouring Burkina Faso into northern Ghana.

“Any such incursion would compel the government to allocate additional resources to defence and security,” the report stated.

Fitch noted that increased security spending would present difficult fiscal trade-offs, either by diverting funds from development projects or by increasing borrowing.

It cautioned that higher borrowing would raise interest costs and crowd out productive investment, ultimately weighing on long-term growth.

GHBUSS