Accra, April 15, – Africa’s economic growth is projected to slow to 4.2 per cent in 2026 as rising tensions in the Middle East push up global energy prices and reignite inflationary pressures, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The Fund said Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth would ease from 4.5 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026, while North Africa is expected to record 4.1 per cent over the same period. Both remain above the projected global growth rate of 3.1 per cent.
The projections were disclosed at the African Consultative Group Meeting with IMF Managing Director Ms Kristalina Georgieva, held on the sidelines of the 2026 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington.
The meeting was co-chaired by the Chairman of the African Caucus and Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of The Gambia, Mr Seedy Keita, alongside Ms Georgieva.
Participants noted that Africa had entered 2026 on the back of earlier stabilisation gains in 2025, but warned that those gains were increasingly under pressure from external shocks linked to the Middle East conflict.
They observed that even with a relatively swift normalisation following a ceasefire, global growth was expected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026 before recovering marginally to 3.2 per cent in 2027.
The Group cautioned that a prolonged conflict would significantly worsen Africa’s economic outlook through higher inflation, rising food prices and worsening social pressures, compounded by existing vulnerabilities such as high debt levels and limited fiscal space.
On policy responses, the Group urged governments to prioritise stabilising inflation expectations while protecting vulnerable populations through targeted and time-bound fiscal interventions.
Oil-exporting countries were encouraged to save temporary revenue gains and rebuild fiscal buffers, while oil-importing economies were advised to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation and improve public financial management.
They also called for accelerated structural reforms to boost diversification, deepen regional integration and expand investments in energy and digital infrastructure to support long-term growth.
The Group further urged the IMF to enhance its surveillance framework, improve country-specific policy guidance, and strengthen its capacity to respond to global shocks.
In response, the IMF reaffirmed its commitment to supporting African economies, pledging continued collaboration on policy design, financing mobilisation and resilience-building efforts.
The Fund said it remained focused on helping countries navigate an increasingly uncertain global environment while advancing long-term development goals.
GHBUSS
15 April 2026
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