Accra, March 20, – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned African Central Banks to stay alert and prepare measures to mitigate inflationary pressures stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The Fund highlighted that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices, sustained over a year, could push global headline inflation up by 40 basis points, with import‑dependent African nations likely to feel the impact more acutely.
Speaking at a press briefing on Thursday, Julie Kozack, Director of the IMF’s Communications Department, noted that prolonged regional conflict could introduce significant economic risks.
“Countries heavily reliant on imports will see rising costs, placing pressure on their balance of payments,” she said.
Ms Kozack explained that these risks are transmitted through commodity price channels, including oil, gas, fertiliser, and food, increasing costs for economies dependent on imports. Conversely, export-oriented countries could see gains from higher commodity prices and increased foreign currency inflows.
She added that disruptions to energy supplies, including potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf infrastructure, had already triggered a 50 per cent surge in oil and gas prices over the past month, creating economic headwinds for Africa.
Rising energy costs, she said, could fuel headline inflation, while tighter global financial conditions may limit access to international capital markets and raise borrowing costs.
Ms Kozack emphasised that countries still recovering from COVID-19, the 2022 food and energy crisis, and climate shocks could face serious setbacks.
“Central Banks must remain vigilant, monitor second‑round inflation effects, and track inflation expectations,” she urged, noting the delicate balance required.
She cautioned that overly aggressive monetary tightening could risk recession, unemployment, and poverty, yet inaction could entrench inflation.
The IMF pledged support to affected countries and announced that its April World Economic Outlook will include a detailed assessment of regional impacts, with scenario analyses on conflict duration and commodity price trends.
GHBUSS
20 March 2026
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