Accra, March 16, 2026 – Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, has cautioned that Ghana’s recent economic progress could be challenged by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Speaking at the opening of the 129th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Accra, Dr Asiama noted that inflation had declined to 3.3 per cent in February, the lowest level since August 1999, falling below the medium-term target band of 6–10 per cent. He credited the decline to disciplined monetary policy and improving domestic economic fundamentals.
“We must make our decisions at the intersection of domestic success and external uncertainty,” the Governor said, highlighting the potential for the conflict to create volatility in global oil markets.
As a net importer of petroleum products, Ghana faces the risk of imported inflation, with rising oil prices potentially affecting transport costs, electricity tariffs, production expenses, and overall consumer prices. Dr Asiama added that geopolitical uncertainty could further tighten global financial conditions, raising borrowing costs and constraining access to external financing.
He emphasised that while Ghana is currently below the lower bound of the target inflation band, the MPC must carefully consider how external price shocks might influence the inflation trajectory.
On a positive note, the Governor cited rising gold prices, which could bolster Ghana’s trade balance and partially offset the inflationary impact of higher oil costs. He also noted that international reserves had risen to US$14.5 billion, equivalent to 5.8 months of import cover, with a government target of 15 months by 2028.
Fiscal performance had improved as well, with a primary surplus of 2.6 per cent of GDP at the end of 2025, compared with a 3.9 per cent deficit the previous year, reflecting stronger revenue mobilisation and expenditure discipline.
Economic activity remained robust, with the composite index of economic activity growing 8.4 per cent year-on-year at the start of 2026, supported by higher business and consumer confidence and gradual recovery in credit.
“The MPC’s decision this week will hinge on whether to maintain the current policy stance or adjust in anticipation of imported inflation pressures. Emerging inflation risks must be carefully weighed,” Dr Asiama said.
He stressed that central banking involves not only managing crises but also sustaining success, ensuring that progress achieved through disciplined policy endures. “The decisions made this week must be resilient to multiple global scenarios in the months ahead,” he added.
The MPC is scheduled to announce the policy rate at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, March 18, following a recent 350 basis point reduction from 18 per cent to 15.5 per cent.
GHBUSS
16 March 2026
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